Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Minimum Arctic Sea ice betting pool update

With about 9 days to go, the pool looks like this:

Here are the guesses, in no particular order:
5200 ±75
4555 ±60
4150 ±100
4800 ±75
4675 ±65
4900 ±80
4700 ±50
4700 ±200
3900 ±100
4250 ±100
4300 ±100
4000 ±75
5325 ±75
4400 ±100
4600 ±100
4000 ±100
4920 ±500
4535 ±25
4235 ±100
4000 ±350

Those guesses which have been mathematically eliminated at the 2 sigma level are dotted. As the rules allow for eliminated contestants to re-guess, Doc and Alistair may guess again if they so desire.

In order to help people guess intelligently, the Y axis has been labeled to show the maximum value of a curve of given sigma. As you can see, guessing with an uncertainty of ± 200 in the well populated areas of the pool will not be very productive.

Contest ends at the beginning of August UTC time. Rules and original announcement are here.

Please put any additional guesses in this thread, giving value, sigma, preferred color, and a bit about your background.

As previously stated, guesses are to be in the form of extent and sigma (a mathematical measure of uncertainty), in thousands of km2 You may use decimal places if you insist.

Your guess will define a Gaussian curve.

The function with the highest value for x=minimum daily measured ice extent (from the lowest daily 2009 value from IARC-JAXA) wins.

As of 21 July, the sea ice extent was 7,848 thousand km2.


Alastair said...

I'll try again.

3,850 +/- 75

Cheers, Alastair.

crandles said...

I'll try 4440 +/- 70.


James Annan said...

I'm making a late bid for 5050+-100

Steve Bloom said...

I'll boldly go with 4100 and a plus/minus of 75. May the weather be with me.