Minimum Arctic Sea ice betting pool- final update
With exactly 13 hours to go before the close of bets, the betting pool for minimum Arctic sea ice looks like this:
Only Doc is still mathematically eliminated.
Are we there yet?
3 days ago
Friday, July 31, 2009
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9 comments:
There was a significantly higher rate of melt the last ten days compared to the same period last year. I now think that we will see a new record - to avoid that, the average melt for the rest of the season would have to fall abruptly from ~+10percent higher now to less than that of last year, and the variability of rate from peak to end of season isn't likely to give that. I now expect 4.1e6 +-100k for the new record this year.
By eye, you seem to have plotted me at 5100+-100 when I asked for 5050+-100.
James
Looking at the graph, I'd like to claim the spot at 3900, with a curve as wide as the red one.
Chris
OK folks, time is up.
Brian, your old guess is still valid, but your new guess is mathematically eliminated from infinity to minus infinity, so I'm leaving you with the old one.
Probably got this wrong and missed some guesses and the formatting will be bad but:
_______________Win Range
Extent Est Sigma Min Max Range size
4000 350 0 3723 3723
3900 100 3723 3824 101
3900 60 3825 3954 129
4000 75 3955 4050 95
4100 75 4050 4157 107
4150 100 4158 4192 34
4235 100 4192 4242 50
4250 100 4243 4275 32
4300 100 4275 4350 75
4400 100 4350 4379 29
4440 70 4380 4494 114
4535 25 4495 4568 73
4555 60 4569 4615 46
4675 65 4616 4662 46
4700 50 4663 4754 91
4800 75 4755 4852 97
4900 80 4853 4978 125
5050 100 4979 5121 142
5200 75 5122 5262 140
5325 75 5263 5494 231
4920 500 5495 6910 1415
I suggest the place you want to be is in the middle of the small range estimates with a wide range.
Therefore with my guess of 4440 +/-70, I would like to claim the prize for gaming the system ;)
Crandles:
Thanks for that, but there is a crossover at 1788 below which the +/- 550 value is higher than the +/- 350.
Let's hope that has no bearing on the final results.
I don't think you don't get points for a wide range miles away from the answer :-)
In fact it seems that my range is widest (apart from the end-members) and it's also in roughly the right place :-)
James, I think we have been told we are trash-talking. The difference seems to be that you are trash-talking my estimate whereas I am trash-talking myself. :)
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