Friday, September 09, 2011

The National Hurricane Center's Y2K bug

The following is the current forecast discussion for Hurricane Katia. Note the last line:

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES WELL ORGANIZED AND IN FACT A DRIFTING
BUOY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 968 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS.
HOWEVER WEAKENING IS INDICATED SINCE THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY
REACHING COOLER WATERS AND KATIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

THE HURICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT 21
KNOTS. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES....IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NO 96-HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN BECAUSE FORECAST POINTS IN THE
EASTERN HEMISPHERE BREAK A LOT OF SOFTWARE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 37.6N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 39.5N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 42.0N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 45.5N 43.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0600Z 49.5N 30.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z 56.5N 10.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z...EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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