Monday, July 04, 2011

2011 Arctic sea ice extent minimum prediction pool

Update:
The contest so far:


Neven and Peter are reminded that contestants who have been mathematically eliminated at the 2 sigma level are entitled to guess again. It is up to you guys to keep track, though. This post will remain on top until the contest closes.

original post:

The 2011 Arctic sea ice extent minimum prediction pool is now open. A reminder that this is a competition on extent, not coverage.

The 2010 summed guess curve and final result are shown below:


Guesses are to be in the form of extent and sigma (a mathematical measure of uncertainty), in thousands of km2 You may use decimal places if you insist.

Your guess will define a Gaussian curve.

The function with the highest value for x=minimum daily measured ice extent (from IARC-JAXA) wins.

See the 2009 announcement, opening, and final curve for details.

This contest will close much sooner than last year's. Guesses must be submitted by the time the Earth reaches aphelion in its orbit, which the internet tells me is 3 pm on July 4 (UTC). Trash talking, dissembling, and boasting in the comments section is still encouraged.

The prize, as always, is the choice of a blog topic on which I will write.

14 comments:

Neven said...

4400 150

Can we choose colours again? If so, I'll take red. :-)

Peter said...

Mean 4.1 million, sigma 0.3 million. Black if we're choosing colours.

Daniel Bengtsson said...

4.89 +- 0.4 million.
Yellow!

Yooper said...

My WAG: 4.0 Million, +/- 0.3 million.
I'll take Blue (for the color of the melt pools).

The Yooper

Anonymous said...

2500 2400
octaroon

Isotopic said...

4567+/-100
Orange, please.

Tor B said...

3999 100

purple, please

Nightvid said...

(4.43 +/- 0.1) M km^2

green

Chuck said...

Thanks for the guesses, folks. Keep them coming. And feel free to describe your background as well.

Daniel Bengtsson said...

Hi again,
I am sorry but can I change my prediction? I simply got so excited about this post I forgot to read it.

I wrote 4.89 +- 0.4 million but would like it to be 4890k km2 with the 2 sigma level of 120.

anything is possible said...

4950 250

Anonymous said...

4700 sig=90

James Annan said...

I'll go with 4750 +/- 90

crandles said...

Maybe I should feel honour bound to stick with my real guess of 4340 550 but that doesn't seem to give me much chance of winning nor of coming in top 3 so I think I will tweak it to hopefully improve my chances of doing well to 4200 180

I think that gives Peter a chance to guess again, sorry.

I see I haven't convinced James.