The contest so far:
Neven and Peter are reminded that contestants who have been mathematically eliminated at the 2 sigma level are entitled to guess again. It is up to you guys to keep track, though. This post will remain on top until the contest closes.
The 2011 Arctic sea ice extent minimum prediction pool is now open. A reminder that this is a competition on extent, not coverage.
The 2010 summed guess curve and final result are shown below:
Guesses are to be in the form of extent and sigma (a mathematical measure of uncertainty), in thousands of km2 You may use decimal places if you insist.
Your guess will define a Gaussian curve.
The function with the highest value for x=minimum daily measured ice extent (from IARC-JAXA) wins.
See the 2009 announcement, opening, and final curve for details.
This contest will close much sooner than last year's. Guesses must be submitted by the time the Earth reaches aphelion in its orbit, which the internet tells me is 3 pm on July 4 (UTC). Trash talking, dissembling, and boasting in the comments section is still encouraged.
The prize, as always, is the choice of a blog topic on which I will write.
Monday, July 04, 2011