I think this is it, unless Eli and GFW and crandles wish ti reguess for reasons stated in the comments.
Update! The guesses so far are posted below. Contest will close tomorrow night once I get the kids to bed and clean up- call it 30ish hours from now. We're all a bunch of doom-glooming alarmists so far!
The 2010 Arctic sea ice extent minimum prediction pool is now open.
Guesses are to be in the form of extent and sigma (a mathematical measure of uncertainty), in thousands of km2 You may use decimal places if you insist.
Your guess will define a Gaussian curve.
The function with the highest value for x=minimum daily measured ice extent (from IARC-JAXA) wins.
See the 2009 announcement, opening, and final curve for details.
I apologize for not posting on the solstice, but I was in transit from a conference in America.
This contest will close much sooner than last year's. Guesses must be submitted by the time the Earth reaches aphelion in its orbit, which the internet tells me is 11 am on July 6 (presumably UTC). Trash talking, dissembling, and boasting in the comments section is encouraged.
Figure 1. Last year's contestant curves and final 2009 minimum sea ice extent (red line).
As with last year, the winner gets to pick a topic for a silly blog post.