Pre-Proterozoic Political Proletariat

For those not familiar with old Earth geology, the conglomerates of the Jack Hills contain detrital zircons, and the 1% of those zircons which are older than 4 billion years consume 95% of the resources used to study these mineral grains. Clearly, this is the longest-running example of economic inequality on this planet.

The trouble with climate models

For the past 20 years or so, people who have not wanted to consider the possible issues relating to increasing the atmospheric load of carbon dioxide and other IR-adsorbing gasses have tried to play down the dangers of potential climate change by pointing out that the computer models used to predict it were not very accurate.

The implication behind this argument is that the uncertainty in these models will overestimate potential changes. What will happen in a future where the models underestimate climate changes in generally unmentioned.

Luckily, we don't need to look to the future to investigate that possibility anymore. The above graph (from Neven's excellent Sea Ice Blog) shows the actual decline in summer arctic sea ice, relative to various computer model predictions. As this graph shows, ice is now melting much faster than any of the models had predicted.

Oops.

Of course, the most persistent pro-pollution propagandists tell us that this proves that the computer models are useless, which means that climate change can't be real, which means that any effects we see must be caused by the warming fairies instead of exhaust gasses.

Whatever.

What we, as scientists, would really like is this: We would like to be able to predict the effects of pollution on the climate before they happen. That's why we get into science. The whole purpose of the field is to make predictions about the natural world and then test them. So if y'all cook the Earth faster than we can make decent predictions about the warming, then we get very disappointed. Not as disappointed as all the retirees on the Jersey Shore who just lost their houses, but still not real happy. So folks, here is a request.

Could y'all please slow down the warming of the planet just enough so that we, the research community, can actually catch up and figure out who is happening to this atmosphere?We would much rather predict doom and gloom for the future than look at last week's disaster and shrug , "Yeah. We should have thought of that."

It has been a year since the solar panels on our house were installed. In that year, we consumed about 2750 kWh of electricity, and produced about 3370 kWh.

If only politicians led by example

How great would it be if all the politicians running for office cancelled any new TV ad buys, and donated the money to hurricane relief instead?  With an estimated 6 billion dollar price tag for this year's elections, a the damages inflicted by Frankenstorm Sandy will still need additional funding, but it would certainly make a dent in the enormous damages that stretch across half the eastern seaboard and west through the Appalachians.  And putting that money into building new homes, fixing infrastructure and preparing the nation for the next superstorm would be a far better use than 2000 more hours of cheezy attack ads being beamed into space.  Sure, some of those ad buys have been paid for already- but visionary candidates, parties, and PACS can choose to run public service ads in that time.

Seriously, folks.  If takes just one candidate to tell all his supporters to fund the red cross instead of him, and suddenly his opponent is turned into the Grinch if he buys attack ads instead of charity appeals.  So which American leader is going to step up first?

Vote Geology in Ginninderra

Here in the Australian Capital Territory, there is a geologist on the Belconnen area ballot for next week's local elections.  Ms. Nash studied Geology at the ANU following her police and small business careers, and I had the luck to teach her intro geology when I was organizing practicals (labs) as a grad student in 1999-2000.  She was a great student, a successful businesswoman, and I'm sure she will make a great MLA.

Isaac Asimov describes uranium-lead geochronology

Cleaning out some old filing cabinets here at work, I found some old newspaper clippings of a science article by Science Fiction and popular science writer Isaac Asimov, describing uranium-lead geochronology of zircon.

As it turns out, the article still exists in the on-line archive of the LA times.  It can be found here.  Although the article is 22 years old, neither the fundamental physics, nor the billion-year-old rocks, have changed much during that time.  So it is still a useful reference for anyone wanting to know the basics of uranium-lead geochronology, and early earth history.

AGU journal commercialization deal announced

Via Ron Schott:

The American Geophysical Union, the world's leading society of Earth and space science, and Wiley-Blackwell, the scientific, medical, technical and scholarly business of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (NYSE: JWa and JWb), a global provider of content and content-enabled services in research, professional development, and education, announced today that the AGU has selected Wiley-Blackwell as its publishing partner for its portfolio of journals and books. The new partnership will be effective January 2013, subject to completion of a publishing agreement in accordance with a Memorandum of Understanding signed last week.

Full story here: I haven't actually cited (or even read) an AGU journal for a decade (unless EOS counts), but anyone who knows about geophysics is welcome to recommend alternative journals in comments.

Additional AGU publication update

The following additional information regarding the AGU journal publication process. It is an email from Dr. Chris McEntee, CEO. I would like to than Dr. McEntee and the AGU board for making this information available to the public, and for choosing this blog, instead of their own blog network, for these announcements. This was actually sent to me on Wednesday. However, I have been travelling and not checking the blog email. I apologize for the delay.

From: Chris McEntee Sent: Monday, July 02, 2012 2:33 PM Subject: Board Decision on Journal Publishing Partnership Earlier this afternoon the Board of Directors concluded its meeting during which recommendations from the working group evaluating publisher proposals were presented and discussed. The working group utilized the criteria developed by Council along with financial and operational criteria in arriving at their recommendations. Their deliberations included an evaluation of AGU’s internal journal publication capabilities compared to the publisher proposals. The working group appreciated and recognized the substantial effort that AGU editors and staff have made in improving AGU publications over the past several years and their solid and sustained commitment to journal quality. At the same time, the working group concluded that a partner would bring additional capabilities and expertise in publication strategy, processes, global reach, and ease of use and discovery by authors, editors, and readers that would significantly benefit AGU. The working group recommended that AGU partner on journal production, distribution, sales and marketing, and subscription management They also recommended a publisher with whom to partner. After thorough discussion, a motion to accept both recommendations was passed by the Board. The Board passed a second motion acknowledging and thanking AGU publications staff for their contributions and dedication to the high quality of the journals program over the years. The next step in the process is to draft a letter of agreement with the publisher selected. Once it is signed, we will be able to announce the name of the publisher and discuss why they were selected. We expect the letter will be signed within a week to 10 days. Once the letter is signed, we will begin determining the impacts on staffing. The results will be shared with staff affected as quickly as possible. We will also form a staff transition team to work with the publisher’s transition team. A revised AGU publications staff structure will be established and will include modified editor and author support for submission and peer review. The specifics of this structure will be shared with the AGU staff and editors once it is complete and determinations are made as to which current AGU staff will fulfill these roles. GEMS will remain the submission manuscript system for authors and editors. We know how difficult the past month has been for staff and that hearing the Board’s decision is not easy. as it will result in significant change for all staff at AGU. I am extremely proud of the excellent work of our publications staff. They consistently demonstrate a strong commitment to quality and fulfilling AGU’s mission. This decision is no way reflects upon their work. The reality is this: the global world of science and scholarly publishing today is vastly different than even 10 years ago. AGU simply cannot match the resources required to meet the needs of a 24/7 global science community of authors and readers. A partner publisher will bring these resources, assuring that AGU scholarly and scientific information maintains its high standard of quality and is readily accessible worldwide. Chris _______________________________________________ Chris McEntee Executive Director/CEO Ext: 510 Office: 5-A