tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20092824.post4145875929794251683..comments2024-01-30T19:45:36.648+11:00Comments on Lounge of the Lab Lemming: Minimum Arctic Sea ice betting pool- final updateC W Mageehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09706100504739548720noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20092824.post-28512384959937566272009-08-04T04:52:46.846+10:002009-08-04T04:52:46.846+10:00James, I think we have been told we are trash-talk...James, I think we have been told we are trash-talking. The difference seems to be that you are trash-talking my estimate whereas I am trash-talking myself. :)crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20092824.post-16865606685097047312009-08-03T13:00:35.495+10:002009-08-03T13:00:35.495+10:00I don't think you don't get points for a w...I don't think you don't get points for a wide range miles away from the answer :-)<br /><br />In fact it seems that my range is widest (apart from the end-members) and it's also in roughly the right place :-)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20092824.post-27475507411166763792009-08-03T09:45:23.299+10:002009-08-03T09:45:23.299+10:00Crandles:
Thanks for that, but there is a crossove...Crandles:<br />Thanks for that, but there is a crossover at 1788 below which the +/- 550 value is higher than the +/- 350.<br /><br />Let's hope that has no bearing on the final results.C W Mageehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09706100504739548720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20092824.post-2544166160523115082009-08-03T05:37:19.728+10:002009-08-03T05:37:19.728+10:00I suggest the place you want to be is in the middl...I suggest the place you want to be is in the middle of the small range estimates with a wide range.<br /><br />Therefore with my guess of 4440 +/-70, I would like to claim the prize for gaming the system ;)crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20092824.post-54649394688310543292009-08-03T05:23:08.135+10:002009-08-03T05:23:08.135+10:00Probably got this wrong and missed some guesses an...Probably got this wrong and missed some guesses and the formatting will be bad but:<br /><br /><br />_______________Win Range <br />Extent Est Sigma Min Max Range size<br />4000 350 0 3723 3723<br />3900 100 3723 3824 101<br />3900 60 3825 3954 129<br />4000 75 3955 4050 95<br />4100 75 4050 4157 107<br />4150 100 4158 4192 34<br />4235 100 4192 4242 50<br />4250 100 4243 4275 32<br />4300 100 crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20092824.post-59972548706610983502009-08-02T08:28:27.155+10:002009-08-02T08:28:27.155+10:00OK folks, time is up.
Brian, your old guess is st...OK folks, time is up.<br /><br />Brian, your old guess is still valid, but your new guess is mathematically eliminated from infinity to minus infinity, so I'm leaving you with the old one.C W Mageehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09706100504739548720noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20092824.post-32014030494746523862009-08-01T16:52:29.191+10:002009-08-01T16:52:29.191+10:00Looking at the graph, I'd like to claim the sp...Looking at the graph, I'd like to claim the spot at 3900, with a curve as wide as the red one.<br /><br />ChrisChris Phoenixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13368959552769808835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20092824.post-80963618551798114282009-08-01T12:46:08.636+10:002009-08-01T12:46:08.636+10:00By eye, you seem to have plotted me at 5100+-100 w...By eye, you seem to have plotted me at 5100+-100 when I asked for 5050+-100.<br /><br />JamesJames Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20092824.post-69353808418494809912009-08-01T03:49:10.774+10:002009-08-01T03:49:10.774+10:00There was a significantly higher rate of melt the ...There was a significantly higher rate of melt the last ten days compared to the same period last year. I now think that we will see a new record - to avoid that, the average melt for the rest of the season would have to fall abruptly from ~+10percent higher now to less than that of last year, and the variability of rate from peak to end of season isn't likely to give that. I now expect 4.1e6 Brian Dodgenoreply@blogger.com